A dívida pública brasileira: trajetória e sustentabilidade do cenário pós-crise
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.7213/rev.dir.econ.soc.v10i2.24243Keywords:
Brasil, dívida pública, sustentabilidade, pós-crise, estacionariedade.Abstract
O presente trabalho investiga as perspectivas de sustentabilidade da dívida pública brasileira no cenário pós-crise, observando a trajetória da relação entre dívida pública e PIB e realizando testes de estacionariedade e cointegração das estatísticas fiscais do Brasil. A metodologia utilizada é a de revisão bibliográfica e coleta de dados públicos em sítios eletrônicos de órgãos governamentais, o espaço temporal definido é o de 2006 a 2017. No início, apresenta-se uma visão geral do contexto da dívida pública no Brasil e no mundo. Na segunda parte, apresenta-se uma revisão da literatura empírica e teórica sobre dívida pública. Na terceira seção, descrevem-se as metodologias utilizadas neste estudo. Na quarta seção, apresentam-se os resultados em uma série de tabelas, gráficos e explicações. Na quinta seção, apresentam-se as conclusões do estudo para a realidade da economia brasileira.
Downloads
References
AFONSO, António; RAULT, Christophe. What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel diagnostic. Review of World Economics. 2010.
APERGIS, Nicholas; COORAY, Arusha. The dynamics of Greek public debt – evidence from simultaneous and structural VAR models. Applied Economics, vol. 47, n.10, p.967-980. 2015.
ARAOZ, María Florencia; CERRO, Ana María; MELONI, Osvaldo; GENTA, Tatiana Soria. Fiscal Sustainability and Crises: The Case of Argentina. Associación de Economía Política de Argentina, 2006.
BAI, Jushan; PERRON, Pierre. Estimating and testing linear models with multiple structural changes, Econometrica, vol, 66, p. 47-78. 1998.
BAUM, Anja; CHECHERITA, Cristina; ROTHER, Philipp. Debt and Growth: New Evidence for the Euro Area. ECB Working Paper Series, n. 1450, 2012.
BERTUSSI, Luis A. S. ; TRICHES, Divanildo. Multicointegração e políticas fiscais: uma avaliação de sustentabilidade fiscal para Argentina, Brasil, México, Peru, Uruguai e Venezuela. Revista Economia, v. 13, n. 2, p. 303-325, 2012.
.
BILAN, Irina. Economic Consequences of Public Debt: The Case of Central and Eastern European Countries. EURINT Proceedings Regional development and integration, vol. 2, p. 36-51. 2015.
BOHN, Henning. The behavior of U.S. public debt and deficits. Quarterly Journal of Monetary Economics, 113, p.949-963. 1998.
BURGER, Philippe; STUART, Ian; JOOSTE, Charl; CUEVAS, Alfredo. Fiscal sustainability and the fiscal reaction function for South Africa. IMF Working Paper, WP/11/69, 2011.
CANER, Mehmet; GRENNES, Thomas; KOEHLER-GEIB, Friederike. Finding the tipping point – when sovereign debt turns bad. Policy Research Working Paper Series, 5391, World Bank, 2010.
CARREAU, Dominique. Rapport du Directeur d’Etudes de La Section de Langue Française du Centre. In: CARREAU, D.; SHAW, M. (Coord.). La Dette Extérieure. Haia: Martinus Nijhoff Publishers, 1995.
CARVALHO, Lena; SILVA, Anderson; MEDEIROS, Otavio L. Dívida Pública: a experiência brasileira. Brasília: Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional: Banco Mundial, 2009.
CHECHERITA, Cristina; ROTHER, Philipp. The impact of high and growing government debt on economic growth: An empirical investigation for the euro area. ECB Working Paper Series, n. 1327. 2010.
CLINE, William. Sovereign Debt Sustainability in Italy and Spain: A Probabilistic Approach. Peterson Institution for International Economics. Peterson Institute for International Economics Working Paper, 12-12. 2012.
CONSIDINE, John; GALLAGHER, Liam A. UK Debt Sustainability: Some Nonlinear Evidence and Theoretical Implications. Department of Economics, University College Cork, 2004.
DOI, Takero; HOSHI, Takeo; OKIMOTO, Tatsuyoshi. Japanese Government Debt and Sustainability of Fiscal Policy. NBER Working Paper, n. 17305. 2011.
JACOBO, Ajandro; JALILE, Ileana. The Impact of Government Debt on Economic Growth: An Overview for Latin America. Working Papers of the Department of Economics. University of Perugia (IT). 2017.
KUMAR, Manmohan S.; WOO, Jaejoon. Public debt and growth. IMF Working Paper, Washington, D.C, n. 174. 2010.
LUPORINI, Viviane. Sustainability of Brazilian Fiscal Policy, Once Again: Corrective Policy Response Over Time. XL Encontro Nacional de Economia. ANPEC. 18p. Porto de Galinhas, Pernambuco, 2014.
MENDONÇA, Helder F.; MACHADO, Marcelo R. Public debt management and credibility: evidence from an emerging economy. Economic Modelling, 30, p. 10-21. 2013.
MENDONÇA, Mário J. C. de; PIRES, Manoel; MEDRANO, Luis A. T. Administração e sustentabilidade da dívida pública no Brasil: uma análise para o período de 1993-2007. Pesquisa e Planejamento Econômico, v. 38, n. 3, p. 389-411. 2008.
MISZTAL, Piotr. Public debt and economic growth in the European Union. Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, vol. 5, issue 3, p. 292-302. 2010.
PINTON, Octavio V. F; MENDONÇA, Helder F. Impulso fiscal e sustentabilidade dívida pública: uma análise da política fiscal brasileira. Finanças Públicas – XIII Prêmio do Tesouro Nacional, 2008.
POTRAFKE, Niklas; REISCHMANN, Markus. Fiscal Transfers and Fiscal Sustainability. CESifo Working Paper, n. 4716. 2014.
REINHART, Carmen; ROGOFF, Kenneth. Growth in a Time of Debt. American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, vol. 100, n. 2, pp. 573–78. 2010.
SIMONASSI, Andrei G; ARRAES, Ronaldo A; DE SENA, A. M. C. Fiscal Reaction under exogenous structural changes in Brazil. Economia. 2014.
VEIGA, José Lopes da; FERREIRA-LOPES, Alexandre; SEQUEIRA, Tiago. Public Debt, Economic Growth and Inflation in the African Economies. South African Journal of Economics, vol. 84, issue 2. 2015.
VLASOV, Sergey. Analysis of Russia’s Fiscal Sustainability under the new fiscal rules. Bank of Finland’s Institution for Economies in Transition. Finlândia, 2013.
WAIBEL, Michael. Sovereign Defaults before International Courts and Tribunals. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 201
WRIGHT, Allan; RENADE, Kari. Determining Optimal Public Debt and Debt-Growth Dynamics in the Caribbean. Research in Applied Economics, vol. 6, n. 2. 2014.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Authors who publish in this Journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the Journal of Economic and Socio-Environmental Law the right of first publication with the article simultaneously licensed under the Creative Commons - Attribution 4.0 International which allows sharing the work with recognition of the authors and its initial publication in this Journal.
- Authors are able to take on additional contracts separately, for non-exclusive distribution of the version of the paper published in this Journal (eg.: publishing in institutional repository or as a book), with a recognition of its initial publication in this Journal.
- Authors are allowed and encouraged to publish their work online (eg.: in institutional repositories or on their personal website) at any point before or during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as increase the impact and the citation of the published work (see the Effect of Open Access).