An ex post legislative impact assessment of the brazilian tax settlements law

Resumo

This paper analyzes the ex post legislative impact of Law 13,988/2020, which regulates tax settlement agreements in Brazil, based on a methodology inspired by the European Commission's Impact Assessment Guidelines, adapted to the Brazilian context. To this end, it investigates tax settlements involving the tax liabilities registered as federal active debt (dívida ativa da União), conducted by the Attorney General's Office of the National Treasury on an individual basis. Additionally, it examines the content of the legislative proposals in accordance with Decree nº 9.191/2017, which establishes drafting standards for federal legislation. The results indicate that tax settlements can be a viable alternative to judicial tax enforcement, especially for debts classified as irrecoverable or difficult to recover. When properly implemented, these have the potential to be efficient and effective. Empirical evidence from 62 individual agreements in 2023 shows a total debt stock of R$ 9.24 billion and an effective recovery of R$ 2.19 billion, highlighting efficiency gains. The study also points to the need for greater rigor in the legislative process, with an emphasis on control, transparency, and impact assessment. As a contribution, it proposes an integrated approach linking legislative procedures and regulatory outcomes in order to assess how public policy design influences the quality of tax legislation.